Anonymous

I am loosely affiliated with the auto industry on the design side so I thought I'd offer some insights to spy photos and how they can be used to judge a new model's release date. This is especially relevant to speculation about the new A4's release.<p>Spy photos usually are pictures of the cars in camoflague. Camoflague can vary from zebra-stripes to all out fake body panels. The level of camoflague gives you a clue as to where the vehicle is in its development cycle. Chassis and engine mules often are built under existing sheetmetal with subtle alterations in track or wheelbase. Chevrolet ran a wide-track Camaro as a C5 Corvette mule for a while. This car was seen in magazines and wrongly interpreted as a future big-block Camaro variant! At this point the car was still a couple years away from official release. Sometimes a mule will be run under cobbled up panels that make the car look like a black cardboard box on wheels. Any car at chassis mule stage is anywhere from 18 months to 3 years from production - usually three years. At this point the external and interior styling may not even be finalized (probably not) so very little can be gleaned except platform info based on wheelbase and track.<p>Often we see cars in magazines that appear "done" but are still camoflagued in matte black or stripes. Sometimes the pillars are altered and even false badges may be affixed. BMWs and Mercedes cars often get "caught" in this stage (just glance through old issues of Car or Road & Track). At this point it is easy for someone to interpret the photos in Photoshop just as described in the article. At this stage in the game, these prototypes represent many different functions; some are NVH mules, some are pre-production build-quality mules, some are evaluator vehicles for management and engineers. Usually these cars are caught testing on roads around the factory or more often while they are undergoing hot or cold weather testing in remote locales (staked out by photographers). By now the styling is most likely finalized (especially if tooling is made) but changes can still be made should the need arise. I'd estimate that cars spotted at this state are anywhere between 18 months to 6 months from introcduction. Usually more like 12 months.<p>Now there is a caveat here - some manufacturers' models get caught by spy photographers more than others. For example, you rarely see a Nissan spy shot but conversely (until recently) Ford couldn't seem to keep a secret. Chrysler is another company that seems to keep its secrets fairly well. More to the point, so is Volkswagen/Audi.Another problem is that different manufacturers have different lead times to product introduction - some take five years, some are as short as three. Four is about average right now.<p>If a company can keep its new models secret for a long time, by the time a spy photo is published it may only be a matter of weeks until the official introduction or initial press release. The new S3 is a good example, first being seen as a spy shot just a couple of months ago. This makes speculation about new model release dates difficult. Some models never get released (remember the BMW M8) others just appear seemingly out of nowhere (last 300ZX). Some cars just linger in pre-production limbo while the bugs are worked out - remember the Lincoln LS?.<p>So in regards to the A4 what can we say? The most recent computer-enhanced photo circulating in Car and Autocar seems to be based off a photo of a camoflagued pre-production mule. That might indicate that the new A4 is close. Unfortunately, since the magazines do not show the camoflagued car from the original picture we can not judge for ourselves what state of development it is in. Let's stick with the 12 month estimation then. Remember, that's 12 months to introduction. Introduction just means it sits on a stand at an autoshow. It may be a month or so until the press drives it and then another few months until production begins and you see it at your dealer. Now we are up to 18 months. For the A4 that would suggest a 2001 model-year rollout in Europe. It may or may not make it to the US for the same model year. That mostly depends on recertifiying the car - more changes like new engines require recertification with the government which takes additional time (This is one of the reasons that the new Golf arrived here a year later than Europe). <p>I have seen some speculation that since the A4 has been facelifted it will be around for a while. I agree with this reasoning but I know of cars that have received minor facelifts for production cycles as short as 12 months before introduction of the new model. Sometimes this is done if introduction delays are feared or anticapated for the new model - might this be the case for the A4? A stronger argument that the current bodystyle will live on can be found in the chassis and safety enhancements that were done for the 99.5 European model. I suppose that these features will make it here for 2000. All this reengineering is pretty expensive so it seems logical that Audi would want to stick with the current A4 as long as possible. Besides, the A4 is a proven player, it has recently compared well in magazines with the new 323i and 328i and I have not yet seen it referred to as "old." I strongly suspect that Audi will do like Mercedes did with the previous E-class and milk the A4 for all its worth. <p>Given all this, I wouldn't expect to see a new A4 here until the 2002 model year (late 2001 calender year.)<p>None of this posting is based on inside information or any other proprietary info.<p>Whew! Finished.

Cameron

It seems that car companies that already have problems with brand confusion and brand management play with badges on prototypes at risk of photography. For instance, Chevrolet and Pontiac have been struggling to build brand equity for twenty years, and yet GM plays with badges. The present-generation Firebird spy shots, in fact, were of cars with what looked like Camaro badging. Granted, there's the feel-good-F-body-guy-club, but it can't be all that large.<p>Your comment on the last Z caught my eye. You're right, this is one of the few examples of a car that truly "came out of nowhere".<p>How valuable do you believe spy photo press to be? I think that, even more than the showcars, emotional cars like the Viper, Z8, and Boxster on a test track catch a reader's eye. The death of the Z and the death of the 8-series go on the list of automotive mysterious happenings... along with Mazda still running an ad with an RX7 in it long after the car became unavailable in the United States...<p>Cameron

ClarenceC

My opinion is that an all-new A4 won't appear in our shore until at least calendar year 2002.<p>Reason ? Like the spy photo article says, Audi has its plate full. TT (Coupe and Roadster), V8 A6, Allroad, AL2. And please don't forget the thousands and thousands of potential owners who are waiting for their A4s. <p>I really hope Audi would forget about making new models for just a while and deliver cars to people who are waiting for the current model !<br>

Anonymous

No question manufacturers use spy shots for their own purposes. Usually it is as you said, to generate interest in a new model before its existence becomes official. GM is actually a pretty bad offender in this area. This may have been the reason that Ford protoypes have been in the press alot. (Of course you can just drive by the Ford factory and see them through the fence, so its not like they are really hidden!) I once saw an article in the British car mags that speculated that BMW kept trotting out its E1 prototype (remember that one?) as a feint to convince Mercedes that it was seriously developing a minicar - did this prompt MB to get involved in the Smart fiasco?<p>This really goes back to the point of my post. If the consumer gets all excited about a new model seen in a spy shot, it can be disheartening to learn that the new model may still be a LONG way off. This is kind of the automotive equivalent of the "grass is greener" analogy. There is always a better car coming out "next year..." The automakers will do anything to keep you interested in their product. If they can get you to reconsider a purchase in the short term to wait for their new vehicle at some future date then that is all the better for their bottom line.

AudiPutz

Re: Camoflague? You mean 'camouflage' I guess.

Stephen M

<br>1. When we get Europe's changes in USA?<br>2. Given Audi's investment in mechanical changes; when we see new redesigned A4?<p>My offficial prediction (quotable) is we will see #1 OCT/2000 and #2 OCT/2001.75 . This prediction is based on fuzzy logic and all the secret info Audi has provided me.

Jerk!

A