eTron Obsolete In X Number of Years
12-08-2020, 03:59 AM
#1
AudiWorld Junior Member
Thread Starter
eTron Obsolete In X Number of Years
Hello
My wife and I are about to purchase a 2019 eTron. My concern is that in four to five years, when the car is paid off, that it will be obsolete in the world of electric vehicles. I have found some articles that use science and data to predict the future of electric cars and I am worried that by 2025 electric vehicles will get, on average, 400+ miles on a charge. Making a 200 mile luxury SUV obsolete. Most of their examples are based on the gains made by Tesla and the Nissan Leaf from their first years of production to the 2019 or 2020 models and some point out that Leafs are hard to compare to current cars since even a small jump in total range can represent a big increase percentage wise. I am not sure what kind of percentage gains manufacturers are predicting in the years to come based on R&D and new efficiencies found in manufacturing and battery technology. If I am not wrong, in two years the 2021 eTron gets about 14 more miles per charge, or around 7 percent. Is that the kind of gain expected per year? So maybe in four or five years the new eTron, should Audi continue to manufacture it, should get upwards of 250 miles?
On another note. We were initially looking at Nissan Leafs until my wife drove one and got claustrophobic (we are replacing her Q7 which got totaled). In our area there are 2015-2016 Leafs with 30-40k miles that are selling for around $10-13k. One mid-range 2016 model (no leather, etc...) had 11 of 12 battery lines shown and was down to about 80 miles of range per charge. It sold for $9,800 according to the owner. For a $33k car, that does not seem like a huge amount of depreciation, especially since the battery is already starting to become less efficient.
Am I wrong to think about electric vehicles like computers, where eventually they are pretty much worthless because of gains in new technology.
Sorry for the rambling, I am a PhD scientist and have been making spreadsheets and looking for any data or rumors about what the increases in battery range may look like in the future. The main reason that we are making the transition to electric is the environment and the eTron is the only electric car that my wife is interested in coming from the Q7.
My wife and I are about to purchase a 2019 eTron. My concern is that in four to five years, when the car is paid off, that it will be obsolete in the world of electric vehicles. I have found some articles that use science and data to predict the future of electric cars and I am worried that by 2025 electric vehicles will get, on average, 400+ miles on a charge. Making a 200 mile luxury SUV obsolete. Most of their examples are based on the gains made by Tesla and the Nissan Leaf from their first years of production to the 2019 or 2020 models and some point out that Leafs are hard to compare to current cars since even a small jump in total range can represent a big increase percentage wise. I am not sure what kind of percentage gains manufacturers are predicting in the years to come based on R&D and new efficiencies found in manufacturing and battery technology. If I am not wrong, in two years the 2021 eTron gets about 14 more miles per charge, or around 7 percent. Is that the kind of gain expected per year? So maybe in four or five years the new eTron, should Audi continue to manufacture it, should get upwards of 250 miles?
On another note. We were initially looking at Nissan Leafs until my wife drove one and got claustrophobic (we are replacing her Q7 which got totaled). In our area there are 2015-2016 Leafs with 30-40k miles that are selling for around $10-13k. One mid-range 2016 model (no leather, etc...) had 11 of 12 battery lines shown and was down to about 80 miles of range per charge. It sold for $9,800 according to the owner. For a $33k car, that does not seem like a huge amount of depreciation, especially since the battery is already starting to become less efficient.
Am I wrong to think about electric vehicles like computers, where eventually they are pretty much worthless because of gains in new technology.
Sorry for the rambling, I am a PhD scientist and have been making spreadsheets and looking for any data or rumors about what the increases in battery range may look like in the future. The main reason that we are making the transition to electric is the environment and the eTron is the only electric car that my wife is interested in coming from the Q7.
12-08-2020, 04:12 AM
#2
AudiWorld Super User
You are correct.
And just like computers, so what? The next great computer advance is ALWAYS on the horizon and we always want to wait for the next chipset, instant on PC's, connector or storage device. But if you keep waiting, you never get the functionality of any device and then there is always another advance to wait for.
EV's are the same. The etron is pretty fantastic. The etron GT IS going to be a better car and then I have no doubt that the etron built on the PPE (Premium Platform Electric) rather than the MEB will finally simply be more coherent. Can you wait? Sure, but after the PPE etron is released I am sure there will be a battery advent or something that makes me want to wait again.
Just jump in the market. The PhD in you will LOVE EV's.
And just like computers, so what? The next great computer advance is ALWAYS on the horizon and we always want to wait for the next chipset, instant on PC's, connector or storage device. But if you keep waiting, you never get the functionality of any device and then there is always another advance to wait for.
EV's are the same. The etron is pretty fantastic. The etron GT IS going to be a better car and then I have no doubt that the etron built on the PPE (Premium Platform Electric) rather than the MEB will finally simply be more coherent. Can you wait? Sure, but after the PPE etron is released I am sure there will be a battery advent or something that makes me want to wait again.
Just jump in the market. The PhD in you will LOVE EV's.
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12-08-2020, 04:33 AM
#3
AudiWorld Member
Here are some of the decision points - at the time of purchase ( never look back after - otherwise you would never buy a big screen TV / Computers !)
- is the initial investment inline to your alternatives ( e.g. compare to a Q5 Q7 Q8 with similar performance / options )
- operating costs ( maintenance , gas/electric )
- Value of adding EV experience to your portfolio of knowledge :-)
- is the initial investment inline to your alternatives ( e.g. compare to a Q5 Q7 Q8 with similar performance / options )
- operating costs ( maintenance , gas/electric )
- Value of adding EV experience to your portfolio of knowledge :-)
12-08-2020, 04:35 AM
#4
AudiWorld Junior Member
Thread Starter
Thanks for the reply.
I am not sure that the PhD shows a level of intelligence, I was conned into staying in school by my advisor. Just kidding, it was a great experience but now I tend to overthink and over analyze everything.
You are definitely right about the computer advancements. I still use my 2017 MacBook Air that I used for my dissertation on all my current research. I have yet to notice any inefficiencies in it. Maybe EVs are the same, as long as they work for you and do everything that you ask of it, that is good enough.
I am not sure that the PhD shows a level of intelligence, I was conned into staying in school by my advisor. Just kidding, it was a great experience but now I tend to overthink and over analyze everything.
You are definitely right about the computer advancements. I still use my 2017 MacBook Air that I used for my dissertation on all my current research. I have yet to notice any inefficiencies in it. Maybe EVs are the same, as long as they work for you and do everything that you ask of it, that is good enough.
12-08-2020, 04:41 AM
#5
AudiWorld Senior Member
My wife and I are about to purchase a 2019 eTron. My concern is that in four to five years, when the car is paid off, that it will be obsolete in the world of electric vehicles. I have found some articles that use science and data to predict the future of electric cars and I am worried that by 2025 electric vehicles will get, on average, 400+ miles on a charge. Making a 200 mile luxury SUV obsolete. Most of their examples are based on the gains made by Tesla and the Nissan Leaf from their first years of production to the 2019 or 2020 models and some point out that Leafs are hard to compare to current cars since even a small jump in total range can represent a big increase percentage wise. I am not sure what kind of percentage gains manufacturers are predicting in the years to come based on R&D and new efficiencies found in manufacturing and battery technology. If I am not wrong, in two years the 2021 eTron gets about 14 more miles per charge, or around 7 percent. Is that the kind of gain expected per year? So maybe in four or five years the new eTron, should Audi continue to manufacture it, should get upwards of 250 miles?
On another note. We were initially looking at Nissan Leafs until my wife drove one and got claustrophobic (we are replacing her Q7 which got totaled). In our area there are 2015-2016 Leafs with 30-40k miles that are selling for around $10-13k. One mid-range 2016 model (no leather, etc...) had 11 of 12 battery lines shown and was down to about 80 miles of range per charge. It sold for $9,800 according to the owner. For a $33k car, that does not seem like a huge amount of depreciation, especially since the battery is already starting to become less efficient.
Am I wrong to think about electric vehicles like computers, where eventually they are pretty much worthless because of gains in new technology.
Sorry for the rambling, I am a PhD scientist and have been making spreadsheets and looking for any data or rumors about what the increases in battery range may look like in the future. The main reason that we are making the transition to electric is the environment and the eTron is the only electric car that my wife is interested in coming from the Q7.
On another note. We were initially looking at Nissan Leafs until my wife drove one and got claustrophobic (we are replacing her Q7 which got totaled). In our area there are 2015-2016 Leafs with 30-40k miles that are selling for around $10-13k. One mid-range 2016 model (no leather, etc...) had 11 of 12 battery lines shown and was down to about 80 miles of range per charge. It sold for $9,800 according to the owner. For a $33k car, that does not seem like a huge amount of depreciation, especially since the battery is already starting to become less efficient.
Am I wrong to think about electric vehicles like computers, where eventually they are pretty much worthless because of gains in new technology.
Sorry for the rambling, I am a PhD scientist and have been making spreadsheets and looking for any data or rumors about what the increases in battery range may look like in the future. The main reason that we are making the transition to electric is the environment and the eTron is the only electric car that my wife is interested in coming from the Q7.
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e-tronDriver (12-09-2020)
12-08-2020, 04:51 AM
#6
AudiWorld Member
Thanks for the reply.
I am not sure that the PhD shows a level of intelligence, I was conned into staying in school by my advisor. Just kidding, it was a great experience but now I tend to overthink and over analyze everything.
You are definitely right about the computer advancements. I still use my 2017 MacBook Air that I used for my dissertation on all my current research. I have yet to notice any inefficiencies in it. Maybe EVs are the same, as long as they work for you and do everything that you ask of it, that is good enough.
I am not sure that the PhD shows a level of intelligence, I was conned into staying in school by my advisor. Just kidding, it was a great experience but now I tend to overthink and over analyze everything.
You are definitely right about the computer advancements. I still use my 2017 MacBook Air that I used for my dissertation on all my current research. I have yet to notice any inefficiencies in it. Maybe EVs are the same, as long as they work for you and do everything that you ask of it, that is good enough.
12-08-2020, 05:51 AM
#7
AudiWorld Member
The worrying part for me is that the battery is not warrantied for a minimum capacity, just for failure (at least outside CA). The BMW i3 with cars around that age have a number around 60-70% remaining capacity, and their warranty replacement number is 70% I believe, so quite relevant.
Audi sounds to have been fairly conservative with their design so it should age well, but wish they would have warrantied it as such so we have the peace of mind.
Audi sounds to have been fairly conservative with their design so it should age well, but wish they would have warrantied it as such so we have the peace of mind.
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12-08-2020, 07:33 AM
#8
Yes, Audi has been very conservative with the battery and the cooling system is probably on the over-engineered side. I am not overly worried about the battery at this point and I am planning to keep the E-tron longer term.
There is certainly the possibility that range will go up as that seems to be the focus right now. However, once the charging infrastructure gets built out more, I would not be surprised if it stays within the 200-400 range and they will just use the battery improvements to use smaller/lighter batteries. Where I live, the 200 mile range seems sufficient. I can get to everything I usually went to with an ICE car without charging, except for longer road trips.
One can also make an argument that ICE cars will be obsolete soon. I have seen articles that pointed out that it might be hard to sell an ICE car in a few years, especially considering how some states and countries outlaw new ICE cars within 10-15 years.
There is certainly the possibility that range will go up as that seems to be the focus right now. However, once the charging infrastructure gets built out more, I would not be surprised if it stays within the 200-400 range and they will just use the battery improvements to use smaller/lighter batteries. Where I live, the 200 mile range seems sufficient. I can get to everything I usually went to with an ICE car without charging, except for longer road trips.
One can also make an argument that ICE cars will be obsolete soon. I have seen articles that pointed out that it might be hard to sell an ICE car in a few years, especially considering how some states and countries outlaw new ICE cars within 10-15 years.
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12-08-2020, 08:39 AM
#9
AudiWorld Member
Virtually every vehicle is a poor investment, they all depreciate - even Ferraris - and on average are worth about half of the cost of new in 6 years. If resale value is a critical buy component, your best bet is either a Jeep Wrangler, a Toyota Tacoma, or a Porsche GT3 or Targa 4S. Those vehicles have incredible value retention.
I would not compare values one the resale market using a Nissan Leaf - your Tesla Model S or X values over the years will serve you better as an estimate. The Model S has been around now for 8 years, so you can track that one easily
I would not compare values one the resale market using a Nissan Leaf - your Tesla Model S or X values over the years will serve you better as an estimate. The Model S has been around now for 8 years, so you can track that one easily
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Multiphonic (12-08-2020)
12-08-2020, 08:50 AM
#10
AudiWorld Senior Member
Depending on where you live, the resale market in 5 to 10 years for a used 2019 Etron may be different. With a state like California moving to a deadline on ICE new car sales, the market for used BEV may provide surprises with a relatively limited supply in the early stages of the near and post ICE age period. I am not certainly counting on anything other than happens with any other vehicle with resale value, but I don't see the bottom falling out either. The desire for a daily commuter with 100 miles range left will have a spot in the post ICE age.
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