jmp470

Here’s my take on EV’s. If you think of an EV similar to building a computer. There are some parts that will change rapidly over the next few years, namely the battery tech and most likely self driving, and computer components. then there are parts that will not change over the next 5 years, namely the case and mechanical parts, suspension, etc.

This is where I like Tesla’s approach and having modules spread out around the car, so you can just upgrade the CPU’s, GPU’s etc.

But, until the flying car is perfected, we will have tires, suspension, etc for years to come.

I own the e-Tron, best car I have ever owned and would buy it again. But, like you OP, I did a lot of research on EV’s before I pulled the trigger and bought it.

JNealCox

Just another something to chew on in the "when I got an EV just about everything I thought I knew about cars has changed" category. Regarding tires, keep in mind that the E Tron is about 800lbs heavier than the Q7. It also has almost instant high torque, which calls for a different tread for optimal acceleration and wear. Add to that the fact that the powertrain is very quiet, so road noise is a problem--many tires made for EV's have a foam inner lining to deaden noise.

biff2bart

Another opinion:

The E-tron was the first car we leased after buying several vehicles. I hate paying interest on a depreciating asset, so I have always financed cars aggressively at very low interest rates over relatively short terms. Usually I keep the car 10-12 years.

When we started looking at the E-tron, as others mentioned, the lease rate was about 4-5% higher than the finance rate. I didn't bite. Then after many months, an offer came around that allowed us to lease the car for a very reasonable rate (about 1.5%) and we bit. We were also able to negotiate a discount off the car, but nothing like the discounts being offered now on 2019 models.

My rational was that EVs are changing so rapidly and this was a first model year car of an entirely new car, that I simply didn't want to be married to it. If I was unhappy at the end of the lease period, I could simply hand back the keys. Effectively paying for a multi-year rental.

That being said, I am STOKED on the car! It's awesome and there are zero regrets. I'm also pretty convinced that unless something way more appealing comes up, I'll be jumping into whatever version of the E-tron exists in 2 or 3 years. I think once the range hits 300 - 350miles on these cars (and especially once they're up to around 400 miles - maybe a decade in the future), the lease vs buy discussion will end up where it is now for ICE vehicles. But currently for EVs, there is certainly a discussion to be had regarding the rapidly changing tech and whether that's important or not to you.

Best of luck with your decision!

Multiphonic

This talk of obsolescence directed at EVs isn't quite fair. EVs are cars. People upgrade cars all the time, and often before the warranty period runs out with expensive German vehicles.
I don't often hear about BMW 3 series becoming obsolete.

If the EV works for you NOW, and continues to serve you the same way in 10 years, then it's just like any other vehicle on the market.
LEAF with passive air cooling that lead to excessive battery degradation is the exception, not the rule. Other BEVs have maintained their battery health quite well.

There has been talk of solid-state batteries, 500 mile BEVs, self-driving cars, and my favorite, the 'car X is just 2 years away' for many years.
It's true that many new EVs are coming to market in 2021 - but look at the Volvo Recharge and Polestar II. Both have range estimates in the very low 200s. Both are first year vehicles, with their own issues.

skaven81

I agree with this sentiment in general, but I think there is some truth to the idea that BEVs may be "obsoleted" faster than their ICE brethren. Comparing an e-tron to a Q7 isn't a fair comparison, for example. Year-over-year, a Q7, like any other ICE vehicle, has very little changing. The engine might be a little more efficient or make a little more horsepower. The infotainment system may get some upgrades. But as you say, a 10-year-old Q7 is going to compare favorably with a modern one, +/- the interior fitment (e.g. infotainment).

But BEVs aren't on the long tail of incremental improvement yet. They're still on the steep part of the innovation curve. Battery technology and motor efficiency are improving at breakneck pace. I think a more fair comparison would be the ICE car industry in the '30s. Compare a Ford Model T (1908-1927) with the Ford Model A (1927-1931). In just a few years, the state of the art shifted from the model T's 4-cylinder 20hp engine with a 2-speed planetary gear transmission, to the model A's 40hp engine with a 3-speed transmission we are all familiar with. Somebody that bought a model T in 1925 would be right to be concerned about it being obsolete in a few years, and indeed it was obsoleted in every way, by the model A. Model A owners got double the horsepower, a roomier, more comfortable ride, an accelerator, brake, and clutch pedal, and a transmission that didn't require holding a pedal down to keep it in second gear.

That's where I think we are on the BEV curve. Innovations like solid state batteries, increasing battery density, new battery chemistries, and faster charging speeds, are all right around the corner.

Would the owner of a 10-year-old Model T still find their vehicle practical and useful? Sure! It would still get them from point A to point B just as well as it did when they bought it. But as they looked around at the other cars on the road, they would certainly feel like they were driving an antique.

In the same way, a 10-year-old e-tron will likely still get the same 200 mile range and 5.5 second 0-60 as it does today (or at least, very close to it). But it's not hard to imagine that the "standard" new BEV on the road in 10 years will have 300+ miles of range, 250+kW charging, and greatly improved motor efficiency and performance. And just like that Model T owner, the owner of a 10-year-old e-tron is likely to look around and feel like they're stuck in the past, compared to what's available. That's not the same sort of thing somebody driving a 2010 Q7 or BMW 3-series is thinking right now (unless they're comparing their ICE to a BEV :-)

Multiphonic

All good points! I'll add that safety features (active, and passive) have improved dramatically over the past 10 years, as has horsepower. My 10 year old ICE vehicle without CarPlay now feels like an antique (though its functions all work reliably, just as on day one... looking at you Audi...)

We're in a golden age of cheap horsepower, to a degree. We have more 'reasonably priced' 3-5 second to 60 cars than than ever. In that sense ICE is not immune to obsolescence.
Is it fair to say this is a discussion about FOMO more than anything else? I wonder if EV drivers, being accustomed to having the new hot thing are overly fearful.

One positive is the charge networks. My experience thus far has been decidedly poor. As these grow, the utility of our 'old' EVs will expand dramatically beyond where it is now.

Having owned 3 EVs when 99% of other vehicles on the road were ICE has had major benefits. Instant torque feels like driving with cheat mode enabled.
That will lessen once parity hits. I expect the fun we're having now will outweigh future FOMO. We'll see!

Multiphonic

Oh, and the conspiracy theorist in me feels that these constant announcements serve to overshadow a sizable crop of great EVs currently on the market.

BimmerCaddyAudi

The pace of technology when it comes to EVs is moving at a much faster pace than ICE vehicles.
Battery tech is slowly improving and may undergo significant leaps in efficiency and drop in cost in the next few years. Power electronics move towards Silicon Carbide and GaN and advancement in motors, will make these way more efficient that what is already being deployed. I agree that in 5-10 years, 300mile+ BEVs will likely be the norm making the current e-tron's seem like dinosaurs.

Such a pace in development made me decide on leasing as opposed to purchasing our EVs. Until then, I will enjoy my e-tron.

BeachDave

Covid-19 inspired me to do whatever I wanted without overthinking it. What if I caught it and died? Other people would spend and enjoy my money. I was planning to upgrade my Q5 in a couple of years. I just started research in May and found I could get $15-16k off 2019 etron so I traded my Q5 right away for 2019 etron. No negotiation. Just happy to enjoy a very beautiful and comfortable car. With COVID-19 I lost more money from my 401k, so why worry and depress myself. Just enjoy and be grateful that you can. Life is too short to worry about resale value 4 to 5 years down the road. My 2 cents worth. By the way, I also got my wife a brand new top of the line Honda Passport.

ted99

Echoing many of the comments, EV battery tech is rapidly evolving and completely changing depreciation calculations. I bought a 2014 BMW i3 on first release and at the end of three years, the identical car was being sold with double the range and my $55K car had depreciated to less than $20K. My opinion is that once EV range reaches 400 miles, the manufacturers will dedicate improvements in battery technology to decreasing weight, rather than increasing range. I base that opinion on 400 miles being the optimum range for a single mid-day charge on an interstate trip. So, if you accept this, once ranges in the 400 mile area are common, EV depreciation will go back to what we think of as "normal". My opinion is that you should do what makes you happy. If that's making smart financial decisions, you shouldn't be looking at premium German vehicles at all. On the other hand, if making the smartest financial decision while still having a premium (in all respects) vehicle makes you happy, you are doing the right thing by considering the experience and opinions of others that have trod the same path. As others have said, does the current e-tron meet your needs and would you be happy with keeping it for 5 years? Again, as has been pointed out, initial cost is an important factor. I would feel a lot better if my i3, that cost $55K, had cost the Leaf's $25K when both turned out to have the same depreciated value of sub-$20K. I do not think that it's currently a smart move to purchase (or lease on the current poor terms) an expensive EV like the e-tron, if you are not keeping it for 5 years or longer. As an alternative, look very hard at the upcoming Q4 e-tron. It's based on the VW ID.4 platform whose current MSRP is $40K and has an EPA range of 250 miles. The Audi will be more premium and still is expected to have an MSRP only about $5K higher. I'd feel a lot better about a residual value of $25K for a $45K vehicle than $35K for a $75K vehicle. If it's a big Audi for 3 years that you want, a Q7 or Q8 might be a smarter buy (this year) than an e-tron. But, I don't think any of us on this forum bought an e-tron because it was a smart buy, it was just what we wanted to do.